What to watch between September 21-25 if you trade ES, NQ or gold?

September 21, 2026.

Before a new trading week it is easy to get lost among the data, economic events and market movements. As an active trader it is important to know which informations deserve special attention, and what they influence.

The week of September 21-25, moreover, follows directly after an important Fed decision. The Fed on September 16 raised the target range of the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%, while it continued to report about high inflation and strong economic activity.

One important question of the following days can therefore be how the expectations related to interest rates and inflation shape up after the new decision, and what do US Treasury yields show meanwhile?

In this weekly summary we filter out those events and market factors to which as an ES, NQ or gold trader it might be worth dedicating special attention.

Short summary

• What changed with the Fed's September decision?

• Why can US Treasury yields come under even greater attention this week?

• Which official data releases arrive between September 21-25?

• Why can the final value of the September consumer sentiment be interesting?

• Which factors is it worth separately watching in the case of ES, NQ and gold?

The main market question of the week: what follows after the Fed's rate hike?

The September 16 decision brought a clear change: the Fed raised the target range of the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. The decision was unanimous.

According to the Fed's statement, economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, domestic spending remained resilient, productivity growth is strong, while inflation continues to be high.

Together with the decision new economic projections also appeared. In the September projections of the Fed policymakers, the median of the 2026 personal consumption expenditures price index was 3.7%, of the core indicator it was 3.4%. The median of the unemployment rate for 2026 was put at 4.1%.

This can provide an important background to the next week.

At the new data therefore it is also worth watching whether they change anything on that picture based on which the market evaluates the next Fed decisions.

A stronger or weaker economic data in itself does not yet tell how the ES, the NQ or gold will move. It is worth putting next to it the reaction of US Treasury yields and the dollar too.

1. US Treasury yields can provide an especially important reference point this week

In the days before and after the Fed's decision significant movement was visible in US Treasury yields.

According to the Fed's official data the ten-year US Treasury yield on September 16 was 5.00%, on September 17 5.01%, and on September 18 4.94%.

The two-year yield stood at 4.67% on September 18.

Why does this matter?

The change of Treasury yields can give information about how the market evaluates the interest rate and inflation environment.

In the case of the NQ it is especially worth watching how the longer-maturity yields behave.

The higher yield environment can increase the pressure weighing on the present value of corporate cash flows expected for the more distant future, which can be especially important at technology companies priced with higher growth expectations.

In the case of the ES this same interest rate environment can affect a wider circle of companies, while informations arriving about economic growth also receive a role.

And at gold it is worth following the yields together with the movement of the dollar. The change in yields can modify the relative attractiveness of holding non-interest-paying gold.

2. Tuesday and Wednesday: Fed speeches arrive

Based on the Fed's official calendar on September 22 Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and on September 23 Board of Governors member Michael Barr hold a speech.

Here however a detail is important.

The topic of Jefferson's announced speech is the modernization of the discount window and the operation of the Treasury market, and Barr talks about housing.

These are not announcedly monetary policy speeches.

This is a good example of why it is worth going beyond a title.

The speech of a Fed policymaker in itself does not yet mean that a new interest rate signal arrives.

If however during the speech or the questions following it inflation, the state of the economy or monetary policy comes up, that can already give new information to the market.

As a trader therefore the content of the speech can be more important than merely that a Fed policymaker speaks.

3. Wednesday: it is worth watching the oil market data too

The next weekly crude oil and fuel market report of the US Energy Information Administration is published on September 23. According to the official schedule the main data are released to the public on Wednesday at 10:30 Eastern Time.

Why does this get into a weekly summary addressed to ES, NQ and gold traders?

According to the September 18 assessment of the Energy Information Administration in the past months the high crude oil prices and the tighter global diesel supply also drove fuel prices upward.

And energy prices are an important part of the inflation environment.

Therefore this week it is worth connecting the movement of oil with the bigger picture:

This does not mean an automatic price movement in either direction either. However, it provides a good framework for you to understand why an oil market movement can get into the field of vision of the ES or NQ trader too.

4. Thursday: new home sales data

On September 24 at 10:00 Eastern Time the August US new home sales data is published according to the official schedule of the United States Census Bureau.

This gives new information about a slice of the housing market in a period when the interest rate environment continues to play an important role in financing conditions.

At this point it is worth avoiding a common oversimplification:

from a stronger housing market data a rising stock market does not automatically follow, just as from a weaker data a fall does not automatically follow either.

Rather look at it together:

• What does the data show about economic activity?

• How do Treasury yields react to it?

• Does the movement of the dollar change meanwhile?

• What is the ES, the NQ or gold doing?

With this the data will already become a market correlation, not an isolated number.

5. Friday: durable goods orders

On September 25 at 8:30 Eastern Time the preliminary August report on manufacturers' orders of durable goods is published.

These summarize the orders of such products whose expected lifespan is longer, for example machinery and transportation equipment.

The data can be interesting because it can give new information about a part of corporate demand and investment activity.

Here too it is worth using the same framework of thinking.

Instead of the first price movement look at what the data changes on the picture formed about economic growth and the interest rate environment, then observe the reaction of yields and the market traded by you.

6. Friday: what does the final September value of consumer sentiment show?

On September 25 at 10:00 Eastern Time the final result of the University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment survey arrives.

Based on the preliminary September data the indicator of consumer sentiment decreased to 47.8 from 51.7 in August.

This week however there is another data too which is worth paying special attention to.

The one-year ahead inflation expectation rose to 4.6% in the preliminary September survey from 4.0% in August, while the longer-term inflation expectation grew to 3.4%.

This connects directly to the bigger story of the week.

The Fed raised rates a few days earlier, and continues to talk about high inflation. The final September value of consumer inflation expectations can therefore give new information about how the judgment of inflation changes.

Here on Friday it might be worth watching together:

What is it worth watching depending on what you trade?

The events of the week are the same, but it is not necessarily worth looking for the same thing in all three markets.

If you trade ES

Watch how the market's picture formed about economic growth and interest rates changes.

After the Fed's decision Treasury yields can give an important reference point. And Thursday's housing market data and Friday's data referring to durable goods can supplement the picture formed about economic activity with new information.

Useful question for the week: how does the ES react when economic data and yields point in the same or a different direction?

If you trade NQ

It might be especially worth paying attention to Treasury yields.

The ten-year yield according to the Fed's official data reached 5.01% in the week of the decision, before it got to 4.94% on September 18.

Next week it is worth observing how the NQ reacts if yields move more strongly again.

Useful question for the week: how sensitive is the NQ to the change in longer-maturity US Treasury yields?

If you trade gold

It is worth watching yields and the dollar together.

Gold is a non-interest-paying asset, therefore the change of the interest rate and yield environment can influence the relative attractiveness of holding it. And the movement of the dollar is another important variable.

On Friday consumer inflation expectations can also be interesting, because they are directly connected to the current inflation environment.

Useful question for the week: do the movement of the yield and the dollar confirm each other, or do they give a different signal?

The checklist of the September 21-25 week

Instead of a lot of information before the start of the week it is worth seeing this in one place:

Times are listed in Eastern Time. Checked based on the Fed, Census Bureau, Energy Information Administration and University of Michigan calendars.

It is also worth keeping in mind what is not there this week. In the official September 21-25 calendar of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index, producer price index or monthly employment report do not feature. The next Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey arrives on September 29.

This helps narrow down attention: not every week is equally data-intensive.

How should you organize what you watch during the week?

A weekly market summary becomes truly usable when you can connect the events later with your own trades.

For example when looking back at a Friday trade the result says much more if you also see that an important economic data arrived directly before it.

Solo Clash HQ can give a simple shortcut in this. The part of the HQ showing economic events displays the events capable of moving the market in a three-day rolling view next to the trading journal, thus it is easier to connect the given daily events with your own trades.

You don't have to follow every news. The goal is that the informations important from the perspective of the market traded by you do not get lost in the noise.

Frequent questions

What can be the most important topic of the week of September 21-25?

The period after the Fed's September 16 rate hike and how interest rate and inflation expectations shape up from here. The Fed raised the target range to 3.75-4.00%, while it continued to indicate high inflation.

Therefore alongside the new economic informations the reaction of Treasury yields is also worth watching.

Which day is it especially worth preparing for?

Friday brings multiple data worthy of attention: at 8:30 the preliminary August data of durable goods arrives, and at 10:00 the University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment survey.

This however in itself does not mean that the largest price movement of the week will be on Friday. Unexpected news can change the environment on any trading day.

At gold is it enough to watch the dollar?

It is worth examining the dollar and Treasury yields together. Besides this, inflation expectations and developments increasing uncertainty can also influence the demand for gold.

Is it absolutely necessary to trade around the listed events?

No. The task of the event calendar is that you see in advance when market conditions can change faster.

Continue to make the trading decision based on your own method, risk management and our current rules.

Summary

The week of September 21-25 follows directly after the Fed's rate hike. The Fed continues to report high inflation, while the ten-year US Treasury yield moved around the 5% level in the previous week.

This week therefore it is worth separately paying attention to Treasury yields, the speeches of Fed policymakers, energy prices, Thursday's housing market data, as well as Friday's data referring to durable goods and consumer sentiment.

In the case of ES watch how the picture formed about growth and interest rates changes. In the case of NQ the movement of yields can be especially interesting. And at gold it is worth following yields, the dollar and inflation expectations together.

The goal of weekly preparation is simple: know already before the trading period which events and market variables most deserve your attention.

To this belongs that you are informed in time about those new informations which can have an effect on your next trading period.

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